Trading Betfair

Quality Arrows

2012-02-09T23:15:00.001Z

Not really much to speak of this week with the weather causing havoc to the racing schedule and there doesn't look to be any end to it just yet. I have been dabbling a small bit n the Aussie racing just to keep my hand in and it is difficult in my opinion with the lack of liquidity in the markets, there are no definite trends and it all feels a bit of a grind. Can't wait until we're back on full schedules and the summer can't come soon enough for me.

Tonight I decided to watch just 1 darts match that took my eye, Taylor v Lewis in my opinion the best 2 players playing at the moment and always a titanic clash. I had looked at the pre off odds and Taylor looked far too short to me, he hardly impressed in the World Championships and looked average in last weeks world cup (admittedly Lewis not much better), however Lewis has won the last 2 world championships an I decide that I was going to lay Taylor at 1.96 with a view to trading out pretty early as I have learnt to my cost that it's so volatile, you are asking for trouble holding onto positions.

My work was done within 3 minutes as Lewis raced into a 2-0 lead, I took the profit then as I was following my plan and wasn't in the slightest bothered by the fact that Lewis raced into a 6-1 lead and therefore would of made me considerably more money.

What we witnessed next was just awesome, Taylor roared back to take it to 6-6 with both men playing great darts and in the end they shared a 7-7 draw!! What a sport for trading if you have the right strategy, not that I'm too interested in Darts but I do like to keep my eye on the bigger match ups and tonight it didn't disappoint.

Been working a bit more on some possible Football strategies, which is good fun and enjoyable but finding a clear edge for me.... Is difficult to say the least.

As the flat gets closer I am looking at some in-running angles I may be able to profit from and I have taken a subscription to the excellent looking Racing Trends service who look to go into great detail regarding stats, pace angles etc.... A very exciting venture and I'll keep you all posted on how that develops.

I see there has been another 2 abandonment's for Saturdays racing and it's pretty depressing really but that is unfortunately the norm for winter as we do tend to get hit with a periods of cancellations every year!

The only plus for me is that I can have a look and work on other areas while I can, the Football lays will be back at the weekend and they are showing good promise so far, more of a straight out betting strategy though rather than a trading one!!

Following on from my last post, I am still struggling on how best to import my p+l into something more thorough? Maybe I'll just keep it as simple as possible or the time being.

Record Keeping

2012-02-07T18:17:00.000Z

I've been reading many great blogs over the past week that have covered record keeping in trading, the general consensus is that they are a crucial part of trading if you are serious about being successful.

I am probably guilty of not keeping accurate records of my trading and when I aren't doing that, I fear that I'm not looking at the true picture of my trading progress. For example I could be accused of forgetting the losses as they are not presented in black and white through not keeping said records.

I am looking for a bit of advice on what sort of records you feel relevant to be analysing? Also the best way to export them from Betfair?

A few years ago, a fellow blogger Robbie Chicago (hope your OK mate) who wrote an honest and excellent blog about pre race trading sent me a spreadsheet he used to track his progress. To be honest I never really used it fully but it did look very thorough and impressive.

I will dig this out tonight and start to track all my business on Betair, even though I have a loose idea of the bottom line! I feel it needs more accurate investigation so will have to get into the habit of keeping good records. This also helps with discipline I would imagine??

Anyway, not a lot happening on the horses this week with the blasted weather, I see another 2 meetings have been cancelled for tomorrow. This will give me a chance to explore how and what I'm going to record in my trading and how to fully make use of what It's telling me.

If anyone has any advice? Please leave me a comment, it would be great to here other peoples opinions on the subject.

Nothing To Report

2012-02-05T15:42:00.000Z

Apologies for the lack of updates this week, been so busy with other things. Looking at moving house and had a few viewings to attend last week although not very productive in terms of finding anywhere suitable.

The trading has obviously taken a back seat and I haven't been involved at all since last Monday, to be honest I don't really think I've missed much however with a disrupted day on Saturday, leaving just 2 all weather meetings!! Hardly the land of opportunity regards pre race trading.

Hopefully weather permitting? I'll be able to get in a good few afternoons this week sometime to continue my slow progression, my head does feel in somewhat of a muddle and I find myself not really being able to concentrate when I have other things going on that need sorting out. I like to give my full attention to one thing at a time (I'm male!!) so It's a case of being careful and only trading when I am in the right frame of mind to do so!!

Looking to try and automate a couple of football strategies I have stumbled upon in the coming months, more about that nearer the time and also I haven't had chance to put up any-more value lays this week, back to that next week.

Hope your all still nice and green

Pre Race Profits

2012-01-30T17:58:00.002Z

Traded the pre race horse racing markets today after saying yesterday that I was to take the horse racing more seriously whilst I search for other profitable angles in other sports. There was some tennis on today but it looked poor fair, so decided to crack on and trade the horses.

Managed to get a decent result for a Monday after struggling for a little while earlier on.... there were some big spikes that managed to catch me out quite a few times and as it's the law, I found them working to my disadvantage in the most part. I lost on 3 of the 15 races I traded and made a decent return relative to my stakes.

One of my best trades came in the 5.50 Wolves where I managed to get a lovely position laying the fav at 3.0 and rode the drift out to 3.6 for a nice confidence boosting win of about 15% of stake, I actually only did one trade that race and when you get a nice swing like that one, it feels so much easier and less stressful than scalping and turning over lots more money.

I was far from perfect!! Some of the races would make pretty ugly viewing an thankfully I didn't get in too much of a tizz which is so easy to do when trading pre race.

I am constantly fighting my emotions when trading as I really do expect too much.... This is a problem I work really hard to combat - but in the heat of battle I do lose a clear head from time to time. Still I shouldn't be looking at negatives and focus on the positive things I do! When I'm tuned in, I'm fairly good and see most things pretty clearly, this comes from being relaxed and not being too hard on myself when making the inevitable mistakes.

I am going to view a new flat tomorrow afternoon so I aren't sure if I will get any trading done, Hopefully I can get a few races in?

Sunday Value Football Lay

2012-01-29T11:54:00.001Z

Another promising weekend for the Value Football Lays with 3 winners so far and a 100% strike rate verall, still early days of-course but promising none the less. We have 1 more lay for Sunday in another game that the market has falsely priced for the expectancy of goals, I have the A/U scoreline in at about 14.0 so great value in my opinion.

F.A Cup

Arsenal v Aston Villa - LAY A/U @ 7.6

Traded the first set of the Aus Open final between Nadal and Djokovic as I thought Djoko would take time to get into the game I backed Nadal from the start and greened up after he took the first set, I was a bit nervous about going in again because Djoko had such a hard game against Murray!? So I'm happy to be out of it and will enjoy the rest.

As I suspected.... Liverpool edged a tight game with Man Utd yesterday but they were no value to back, in-fact United were better for long periods but never really looked like hurting Liverpool and the game was a bit of a disappointment to be honest. I saw the picture I've added on Twitter showing a Liverpool fan in what looks like a racist monkey pose! I thought we'd seen the back of all that and were going back to the 80s allowing this sort of thing to go on.

Admittedly, It's a very small minority but in a day and age where your skin colour can go against you or be used as a reason to abuse someone is just plain wrong!! Lets hope they track this moron down and ban him for life.... No place for people like that in Football.

This week I have said to myself I have to knuckle down a bit more with the pre race trading as I see myself relying more and more on that through the summer, I haven't really made much progress with other sports thus far apart from the tennis but I still feel a bit lost trading some of the games and I aren't confident it suits my trading style as yet??

I am guilty in anything I do of trying to run before I can walk and have fallen into so many traps in the pat, I just have to get real and not expect too much. I constantly make the same mistakes over and over again with regards Football, resorting to the over/under markets which to me is pure gambling ( fine if you have a value bet) but I want to trade not bet..........

So I will be continuing the lay experiment and will be putting more focus on the pre race horse racing from now until the summer, I will be having a look at the televised Tennis on Sky throughout February where I will try and develop a style that suits me and gives me ample reward for the larger than comfortable risk I seem to currently take!!

Value Football Lays

2012-01-28T09:58:00.002Z

Another winner for the Football Lay last night as Spurs won 1-0 away to Watford,

We have another 2 lays today that I feel are underpriced in the A/U market due to a false expectancy for goals.

F.A CUP

Q.P.R v CHELSEA - LAY A/U @ 8.0
LEICESTER v SWINDON - LAY A/U @ 7.8

Looking forward to the 4th round clash between Liverpool and Man UTD , I do fancy Liverpool in this one but saying that... It's liverpool and you never know what you get with them, I won't be trading but I do think that there will be goals and if 0-0 after around 25 mins? I would be interested in the over 1.5 goals market if the price was right?

There is some fantastic racing on today and we see the return of Big Bucks who has never been beaten over hurdles, he is a beast of a horse but it is a weak division it has to be said, there should be some serious money matched on him because he's such a short price and that usually attracts huge sums on a Saturday.

Just watching the womens Aus Open final between Azarenka and Sharapova, Shara won the first 2 games and has lost 11 of the last 12 games and she looks to have emploded. I remember her doing exactly the same in the Winbledon final so I kept well away from trading it. To be honest I do prefer trading the mens, there is a lot of money to be made for skilled tennis traders on WTA because of the inconsistency on serve etc.... but I cannot go through the emotion that brings so will be looking mainly at the mens game for the near future.

Just another unrelated point regarding blogger viewer stats, I average around 100 readers a day according to the stats, I have noticed a sudden surge in page views every-time I post about the football lays?? Now it goes up to around 400 on them days?? Obviously some sort of spam bot etc... I was just wondering if anyone could give me any advice on how you can block these? I have 3 addresses that are viewing the site up to 10-15 times an hour so It's completely throwing the stats and is annoying!!!

Hope you all have a great days trading/punting

Value Football Lay

2012-01-27T18:44:00.000Z

I have 1 qualifying lay on Tonight's F.A Cup clash between Watford and Tottenham, I know Spurs can score goals for fun and Watford are pretty poor but the 6.0 for the Any Unquoted is too short and therefore a lay.

The match is live on ESPN at 7.45pm

F.A CUP

WATFORD V TOTTENHAM LAY A/U @ 6.0

All lay bets are calculated to a 1pt level stake.

There should be more for tomorrow but I will post them up tomorrow morning sometime.

Black Caviar - Aus Open

2012-01-27T10:18:00.002Z

Just finished watching Black Caviar record her amazing 17th win from 17 runs over at Moonee Valley in Australia, being a bit of a fan of horse racing for years I can appreciate just how good she really is. Undoubtedly the best sprinter in the world and the fact that connections are coming over for Royal Ascot in June only makes it more exciting.

She will be running in the Kings Stand Stakes on the Tuesday and I am looking forward to attending to hopefully see a bit of history. There has been talk of a match up between our superstar Frankel but great as though that sounds, I just cannot see over what distance and where such a race would take place? One is an exceptional miler and the other a great sprinter, to me comparisons are pointless!!

Made a bit of a pigs ear trading the Federer v Nadal semi final yesterday, not that I lost much in monetary terms. It was more that I saw good opportunities that I left alone and got involved when the market was too volatile and carried too much risk for my reward. I definitely see that going against the obvious in tennis can sometimes pay dividens when your right...... If only I had the mental strength to play the prices rather than what looks more than likely to happen! But It's all a learning process and hopefull I'll get a lot better at it?

Just watching the Djoko v Murray game and I did fancy Murray to cause him problems? I think Djoko will win but it might not be easy for him, Rafa would have a chance in the final against Djoko if he believed he could beat him because I'm not sure he is at the same exceptional level we saw last year? Saying that I wouldn't put my life on any scenario which is why trading short term appeals more than outright backing or laying in tennis.

Starting to go through the weekends football fixtures to look for a few possible value lay test selections, although It's F.A Cup I think there are a few prices in the A/U correct score market woefully under-priced? Just a case of filtering them out and seeing if they fit the criteria.

Will post any lay bets on the blog later tonight or early tomorrow if there are any?

Steady Afternoon

2012-01-25T23:12:00.000Z

Decided to trade a few of the Horse Race markets today after feeling this morning that I wasn't really in the mood for it, thought to myself I may aswell see if I can nick a few trades if the opportunity arose.

I traded OK if not spectacular and was happy to just nick small wins without really pushing for miracles, I traded 22 races losing on just 4. Saying that though I made losses a tad bigger than my average wins so wasn't happy with that but it meant a 12% increase on bank and I'd take that everyday of the week.

Will be doing the horses again tomorrow with 4 English meetings and one from Meydan (don't usually trade them) so doesn't look too bad on first view?

Liverpool made it through to the Carling Cup Final earlier after twice being behind and I thought they were the better side throughout and deserved to go through over the 2 legs. I was also in two minds about laying Barca 2-0 up against Real in the Spanish Cup but resisted what would of turned out to be an excellent trade! Being honest though I hadn't planned to have any trades/bets on it and it would of been just a instinctive lay, so not too disappointed and a great game to just watch.

Tennis Profit

2012-01-25T11:26:00.001Z

Have managed to trade the quarter finals of the Aus Open through the night and I was happy with the results, almost doubling my admittedly small tennis bank. Most importantly I made a few decent decisions regarding the Murray game and the Djokovic thriller.

I backed Murray to win -8.5 game at 2.1 in the 2nd set as even though Nishikori looked dangerous at time, Murray seemed to be able to break him at will. I jumped on Djokovic at 1.5 after he appeared to turn funny and looked in a bit of trouble.... I have seen this all before though and in my eyes it was a huge overreaction. They were level at 2-2 and Djoko up a set, his sp was 1.15 or thereabouts.

As I write this he is well in command in the 3rd and I will let it run.Really enjoyed messing about with the tennis and will look to implement a few things I've learnt so far in the upcoming tournaments.

Struggling to get motivated with the horses, managed to trade a few races yesterday however for a decent 11% increase in my trading bank.

Liverpool face Man City in the 2nd leg of their Carling Cup semi final tonight and although I think Liverpool may sneak it? I won't be getting involved. If they play like they did on Saturday night though? It will be a tough night. They won't be that bad again..... Will they???

Bit tired so will probably give the racing a miss this afternoon.

Decent Weekend

2012-01-23T09:39:00.000Z

Decent weekend with the new Value Football Lays having a clean sweep of winners with a 100% success record, early days but a good start. You can follow the progress of the lays on the results page at the top of the blog.

The aim with any laying or betting system is to be able to take odds that are in your favour, thus creating a value bet! If we continue to get value and our assessment of the said "value" is right? Then we will make money consistently over a period of time. This is what the lays hopefully will bring, what I perceive to be value based on market overreaction for expectancy of goals, where punters ignore some very important statistics.

Still enjoying the tennis, been some really great matches over the weekend, especially enjoyed watching Gael Monfils on Sat Morning, he's so entertaining and just don't know what he's going to do next. Also managed to get in a small lay of him at 1.15 and got out of the bet at 9.2, mainly because he had a back injury and the market always goes bezerk when there is a hint of an injury! We have seen it so many times with Monfis, he does like to make a meal of things and maybe what looks pretty serious is actually very much not??

In he end Monfils levelled the game at 2-2 and was a break up in the 5th trading at 1.04 I think it was? Before throwing it all away in a spectacular collapse. Great Game.

Value Football Lays Test

2012-01-21T05:24:00.006Z

The last week or so, I have been doing a bit of research regarding a laying strategy on the correct score markets in Football. I started around 2 years ago and I thought I was onto something good at the time but I decided that trading should be my sole focus and left it on the back-burner.

I have now been testing for the last week as I thought I may be able to devise a trading strategy from it but after looking at past results It's clear that it is more profitable as an outright lay system. I believe the lays represent massive value long term and It's based on laying Any Unquoted scorelines in a situation where there is overreaction and ultimately therefore value to be had opposing this. I run a strict cut off of no lays above 10 and each selection must meet the vigorous criteria to be a bet.

I will test them live on the blog to see how they go, please do not take these as tips and don't follow them with money as I don't want to be responsible for any losses incurred throughout a test period.

At the moment I will be laying only in the Premier League and the Championship as that's where most of the testing has been done. I am sure the system proves profitable in other leagues but I haven't done anywhere near the amount of research required as yet. Also I have set up a separate page on the blog so you can track the progress.

So onto today's qualifying lays

All lays are to a 1pt level stake

Premiership

Norwich V Chelsea - Lay A/U @ 6.4

Everton V Blackburn - Lay A/U @ 8.4

Bolton V Liverpool - Lay A/U @ 8.0

Championship

Leeds V Ipswich - Lay A/U @ 8.4

Peterborough V Brighton - Lay A/U @ 9.4

West Ham V Nottingham Forest - Lay A/U @ 7.8

Trading Is Very Much A Skill

2012-01-19T00:00:00.000Z

Just thought I'd do a quick post on a video I came across on Youtube yesterday! The trader in the video is obviously a financial trader but the similarities between financial and Betfair trading is very very similar....Especially the pre race horse racing markets.

It's not just a case of sitting at a computer clicking a few buttons and watching the £££ roll in, It is a skill and you have to work very hard to learn it.

A great quote from a great man - "Nothing in the world is worth having or worth doing unless it means effort, pain, difficulty... I have never in my life envied a human being who led an easy life. I have envied a great many people who led difficult lives and led them well."
Theodore Roosevelt

More Tennis ideas

2012-01-17T11:18:00.003Z

Spent another early morning watching the tennis, enjoyable as it was didn't really learn a great deal but keep getting decent ideas and possible strategies to explore so it's all good. Thought Murray played well after losing the first set and Djoko absolutely demolished his opponent!! Again, what does it tell us?? Not a lot in my view but good to see they are hitting the ball well.

Sharapova was another impressive winner, dropping just 1 game to Dulko. That was after she'd been 40-0 up on her own serve as well, her ground strokes were good, but unfortunately it's that serve of hers that lets her down and will probably cost her later in the tourney.

Not doing the horses again today as I had a look earlier and to be honest it's poor, 2 meetings on at the moment, however Folkestone check again at 12.30pm and not really ideal conditions for trading, plus the fact I'd be going into it half hearted... best to just give it a miss.

Australian Open

2012-01-17T00:42:00.003Z

Spent most of this morning watching the tennis from OZ and just watching the markets and how they react... It's so much clearer when your not clouded with an open position that eventually goes tits up (usually the case for me), spotted some really interesting things going on and will be keeping a close eye on it throughout the tournament. Wozniacki and Azarenka were impressive as was Federer and Nadal, what you can take from these early rounds though I'm not sure though? They are playing hugely inferior opponents.

Tennis is a sport I've looked at trading in the past as I do have a keen interest in the sport but have never really had any sort of defined strategy which usually meant that I would find myself in a mess sooner rather than later. Having said that I have had some of my biggest wins (and losses) trading tennis as my style is aggressive and when it goes right it pays well. Federer losing to Berdych a few years ago sticks out where I laid Fed 4-1 up in a final set tie break before he went on to lose and last year Sharapova playing Jankovic say 5 successive breaks of serve which made me good money also - unfortunately these wins were few and far between and when I get it wrong, I do so spectacularly.

To be completely honest I haven't spent nearly enough time learning to trade tennis and give up after the losses, I actually believe I'm in profit on he sport but get disheartened with the big losses and leave it for a few months, losses fresh in my head. This is clearly because of over-staking and not having the mental strength to get over them because I staked too largely in the first place, money management is another huge trading skill to have right.

I do hope to maybe find some sort of mechanical way to trade tennis that consists of taking value positions in-play that will hopefully lead to me being able to green out at sometime in the match?? This scenario is a way off though and It's definitely more of a watching brief at the moment. I'm a bit impatient also and tend to want to be always involved rather than waiting for the right opportunities.... this is where I find myself in trouble when things go against me so I think a more mechanical strategy with strict money management will suit? If anyone has any advice regarding this, I'd be more than glad to hear from you.

Another good post by Cassini over at Green All Over regarding taking a hit, more importantly... coming back from it!! A lot of what was said and the link he provided to another blog on the subject was a fascinating read and one that definitely relates to me and my current sports trading situation, definitely worth a look.

Again I would like to thank Sultan from the excellent and entertaining blog Centre Court Trading for his comment left on my 2nd to last post, he has also made a fantastic post regarding people just tuning in to bet on the Grand Slam events and why they think they can suddenly profit just on these tournaments, very true and I do agree with a lot of what he says there so check that post out for sure.

Had a small bet on over 2.5 goals in the Blackburn v Fulham game on Saturday as the pre K.O price of 2.02 was great value in my opinion, I also went in for a little more at 2.6 in the first half. This wasn't a trade though as I have mentioned before, It is gambling!! I'm not averse to gambling as long I feel the value is there then I'll bet and would back myself (no pun intended) to make a profit in the long term.

Couple Of Days Off

2012-01-13T23:06:00.001Z

Well I haven't traded at all for the last couple of days, after my recent bright idea of mixing gambling with trading with no plan or knowledge of what I was actually doing I feel deflated and my head just isn't tuned in to grinding a profit when I have thrown away much bigger amounts with reckless punts.

I hope to move on from this setback and develop a sound plan before entering any trades in the future knowing what I am likely to win or lose depending on whether the trade is successful or not? I found myself just stuck there watches a loss get bigger, hoping for a turnaround purely because I couldn't face taking a loss after being in a good winning position 60 seconds earlier!! This used to happen frequently whilst trading horses but it was something I got better at, mainly because of some absolute shocking bank blow-outs for the sake of a smaller, retrievable loss. Hopefully I have learned a valuable lesson and can start to be a bit more careful regarding capital preservation.

The main problem I have faced throughout my trading life is that I always like to finish an event or day in profit, I know that this is absolutely impossible but seem to do reckless things to get there and get annoyed if things don't go my way!! I thought I was past all that? Obviously not......

Another thing I will say is that outside influences are not a good mix for trading successfully, I have a few issues going on in my life at the moment and feel pressure to make money on the exchanges. Therefore losses, wins and general trading is much more magnified on my emotions, this could also be part of the reason why I continually do silly things on sports that I have no knowledge about and definitely no right to be in the market with a big (for me) position!!!

I definitely want to knuckle down and start making decent money again on the pre race horse markets and will continue to gather in as much info and knowledge on trading other sports with small stakes. The excellent blog Green All Over posted about laying low in basketball and I must say I have to agree with everything Cassini says about getting it right less often.... but when you get it right it pays dividends. Just have to work out where I should be laying and in what scenario (that's the hard part)?? But from what i've seen of the NBA, doing it blindly providing there is enough time on the clock ad the teams are pretty closely matched? You shouldn't do too much damage even if it doesn't prove profitable!?

Poor Show

2012-01-11T18:36:00.003Z

Just a quick update on some poor trading I have been blessed with over the last 2 days!! I'm starting to be a big head and think I can just trade all sports I get involved with profitably! I CAN'T, I'M A MUG!!

I have been looking at doing a few other sports for a while as I want to diversify ways to profit on the exchanges but I fail to grasp that the people making money in these other sports have worked very hard to do so and didn't just bang a few trades on what they thought would happen at any price! They make trades on the fact that something is VALUE ie.. too short or too big. If they are getting value then they will make more profits than losses overall.

My problem is that I will try to win every trade and what I think is value at the time? Is very clearly not. I have to pick and chose what sports I want to research and work hard in doing that..... Not just back a certain cricket team because they should win from there or a tennis player who has a double break in the set hoping she wins the set and will trade shorter, which she probably would but not by any significant amount having a double break, (she lost the double break by the way and lost the set).

What i'm trying to say in all this rambling tripe is that I am not getting in at decent value prices because I don't know what is real value because I don't know enough about the sports and more importantly... What moves the prices, when and how far they move after certain plays or scenarios.

The main offenders have been 20/20 cricket, a game I enjoy but make poor betting decisions based on short term events, tennis has been poor again as it was a year or so ago when I dabbled, the inconsistency of some of the serving is quite pathetic and I've found myself with some ugly losses leaving my bank depleted and me very frustrated.

I will be concentrating on the bread and butter of horse racing for a while and try and rekindle some sort of enthusiasm for that, slow steady returns is OK! I'm too greedy though and want to make too much too quick hence my foray into sports I have an extreme disadvantage trading.

I also backed Miami Heat at 1.20 in-running last night and they traded at 1.01 and lost in overtime, if I wasn't so greedy I could of greened up as I did feel they were too short given how the game was poised. I have never seen any market so volatile in any other sport I have ever watched, absolutely crazy stuff and if I wasn't scrambling to get out for another ugly loss I probably would of really enjoyed it!! There has to be a way I can exploit some of the moves in the NBA but not with my current attitude and knowledge. Saying that I traded 4 NBA games and had small profits on 3 of them but as is crucial with trading, it's no good winning a little on your good trades and a lot on your bad ones!! You will only end up skint with that sort of performance.

So a very pissed off and feeling sorry for myself post and I'm really struggling at the moment, my bank is in ruin as I got too big for my boots and resorted to greedy gambling rather than methodical value trading! I am definitely not giving up the idea of trading other sports, I just have to play with small stakes as I learn.. If I cannot profit with £5 stakes I won't with £500 either.

My plan of action is to get sorted mentally and grind out what I can on the horses, then do some research on a couple of sports i'm interested in, mainly Football ( very difficult to find an edge for me that one), Cricket and NBA. The rest I simply have no idea about how to make money from and consistently get myself into a pickle.... I am going to carry on and see what I can learn from these said sports but I will trade them with a liability no bigger than £20 as I am simply not prpared to lose so much money learning whether I can profit from them.

Apologies for the rant and I do hope you have been more successful and less of a mug than me these past few days?!

Weekend Update

2012-01-09T03:04:00.004Z

Hi All,

Just a brief update on the weekends trading progress which has been OK. Saturday was a long and hard day for me after trading the horses in the afternoon I switched my attention to some F.A Cup trading later on...

The horses went pretty well in the end but it was hard work, taking losses far bigger than your profits only means your going to struggle and I did. Managed to get it together though and post a relatively small profit for the work and energy expanded.

After I'd finished up on the horse racing I switched my attention to the Newcastle V Blackburn 3rd round tie, Blackburn were 1-0 to the good and trading at around 1.85 in the unmanaged Betfair market, now I know that Blackburn haven't kept a clean sheet all season and are abysmal at the back so with then sat well back and not looking to press for any further goals (think back to the Sunderland game) I felt a lay at that price was the correct and good value trade with around 22mins left. Thankfully no less than a minute or so after I'd been matched Newcastle equalised and Rovers were trading at around 8.0-9.0.

I was then pretty confident that my lay looked safe and actually added a bit to the draw at around 2.2 with a view to laying off after 5-10 mins!! I actually kept my biggest profit on the draw and was happy with the red scenario on Blackburn given their 2nd half ambition thus far, unfortunately Newcastle won it in injury time to scupper the bigger profit on the draw but still a decent green was had and one I was very pleased with.

My other trades came in the NFL where I had backed Houston at around 1.5 laying off at 1.28 in what turned out to be a pretty one sided game from what I saw and I managed to lose £8 in the NO v Detroit game by backing over 58.5 points only to realise my silly mistake as that was quite a lot of points given there had only been 20 or so and it was almost HT, in my defence I was tired and it had been a long day so dumped that at -£8 and called it a night.

SUNDAY

Well I have just traded the NFL game between the Steelers and the Broncos and what a fantastic game it was with the Broncos winning with a TD and 80yard pass from Tim Tebow in the first play of overtime!! Amazing stuff... Managed to nick a relatively stress free £25 mainly by laying the Broncos when they looked too short at around 1.25ish in the 3rd quarter, a good drive for Pittsburgh meant I could green up for that amount and I was more than happy with it. I am relatively new an inexperienced trading this great game so anything is a bonus whilst learning.

Had a nibble in the Basketball and was wanting to be against Orlando for most of their game tonight, the market seemed to be in love with them and they were short throughout despite it being petty close until the last quarter, think I made about £2 on that and was happy not to lose. The Oklahoma game went better though, that was a more simple back bet at 1.20 when they looked to be in total command. They started the 4th quarter with a lead of around 23pts so let that ride and they never looked in any danger (nor should they with a 23 point lead in the last quarter)

Going to watch the Lakers game now and they look short at 1.18 with only a 9pt lead first quarter, they started at 1.31. I will wait and see if there are any opportunities that arise in that one, not exactly looking for action so will be pretty selective because I want to learn more about how and why the odds move. One thing that is evident is that bigger teams tend to be backed at almost silly looking odds with slender leads and I'm sure they aren't all 1.01 trains from what I've seen of the N.B.A, which is not much I grant you but an exciting proposition to explore none the less.

Mondays card look terrible with only 2 meetings and I will probably give them a miss as I will be up late, doubt I'll be missing much anyhow??

Hope you all had a profitable weekend on the exchanges

Until next time...

Back To The Grind

2012-01-04T16:47:00.002Z

Didn't bother trading the 1 meeting yesterday so today was back to the horses for the first time this year and I managed to increase the trading bank by 18% which I am obviously happy with given I only did around 10 or so races. I made an absolute mess of the 2.50 race though where there was odds on fav at around 1.3ish.... I got on the lay side pretty big and it was just hammered and gave me little chance of getting out without a messy loss.

I've been caught on these shorties before and can sometimes get in a bit of a muddle trading them. Possibly worth looking at the other runners in this type of race unless it's a high profile race/runner as they hardly move because of the huge sums stacked up!! With the run of the mill meetings there is more movement on the short ones and if you get on the wrong side of a move it can be very messy.

Looking at doing a bit of in-running over the coming weeks and months using small stakes as this can be a decent way of making a little extra on the race if you have a good strategy in place and not let any trades turn into in-running bets that ultimately end in disaster.

Happy to be back though and a nice confidence boosting day has given me some nice motivation moving forward, hoping to just plod in January and then when the racing quality picks up in Feb and March I hope to be making these good returns with a bigger bank size.

First Day Back - Darts profit

2012-01-03T11:21:00.000Z

Well today was going to be my first day back trading the horses! I'm now in two minds as to whether I should trade today as we have just been left with one meeting at Southwell following the abandonment of Ayr. This is the issue I have in the winter months as a trader of horse racing, we lose race meeting hand over fist and then get 1 meeting with half and hour gaps with little liquidity in them.

I always end up going in too early or trying to squeeze more profit from a race to make up for the limited opportunities and it never really works! I may just have a look at a few races for small stakes just to get a feel again and not expect too much. A 3-5% increase on my trading bank would be just the ticket and I am sure that with 1 meeting I could do it? we'll see anyway??????

Managed to grab a few quid on last nights darts with a back of Lewis most 180s and Lewis outright, both looked excellent value and I let both bets ride. I know there wasn't much between them on tourney stats but Lewis is the better player and he has more gears without a doubt, he'd been there and done it last year and the game went pretty much as I expected even though neither were scintillating.

Looking forward to the football tonight with Man City taking on Liverpool, I will not be getting involved financially as I struggle to get a handle on both of these teams, I wouldn't be so sure of a goalfest!! One to watch and enjoy for me I think and good luck to you if you are trading it.

Ready For The New Year

2011-12-30T14:28:00.001Z

Sorry for not posting hardly anything throughout December. I just haven't done anything at all trading related and have switched off from all things Betfair until the New Year now.

I have some ideas to take forward into the New Year and hopefully I will be able to find some profitable strategies on other sports that will serve me well next year, however it's very much harder nowadays as the exchanges are so very competitive and finding that elusive "edge" in sports that have real die hard experts is no mean feat!!

I think there will be those that will always have superior knowledge in these areas and therefore my attack has to be from a different angle as opposed to simply knowing the game better than someone else? It revolves around knowing the market and what sort of things I can profit from within that market at certain times during certain sports..... But plenty of work ahead yet though.

Horse Racing is an area I will be concentrating on again as my enthusiasm wanes throughout the winter but I will need to be sharpening up for when the racing gets better and we approach the summer months where it all comes thick and very fast!!

I will be back in the New Year with a renewed vigour and hopefully try and make 2012 a special year in more ways than one? Thanks to everyone that has read and I would like to wish you all a very Happy New Year and for 2012 to be a memorable one.

Update

2011-12-14T18:43:00.002Z

Sorry for the lack of posts in the last week but there hasn't really been anything going on, I have traded a couple of the early morning Aussie races to nick a few quid, but got caught out with a suspend!! They really are quite good at going to time in AUS so it's better to be well out of it before the time reaches zero, on the flip side the liquidity only picks up in the dying minutes so it can be pretty easy to get caught.

I see it's the Europa League tonight but I really dislike it as a competition and find trading it equally dull so won't be getting involved in that.

So December a quiet month for me and i'll be just coasting until the end of the year from now on, recharging the batteries to have a right good crack at 2012!!! My enthusiasm does tend to dwindle in the winter for some reason? maybe because I'm a Horse Racing trader by nature and generally this time of year is the worst for that? I am trying to branch out into other sports with limited success at the moment, that is one of my main aims of the new year though. To get another sport that I can profit from to add another dimension to my trading, lots of work and research to do before I get anywhere near but still I'm optimistic about the prospects.

Baskeball has always been a sport I enjoy and the swings can be wild in the NBA, so I will definitely be looking at how that can be traded, there are a lot of patterns that tend to repeat in Basketball and I'm sure there could be a way I can trade the sport successfully or even automate it?? Would love to hear some other peoples thoughts on it.

Thanks for reading my dross :-)

Nothing doing

2011-12-08T22:27:00.000Z

Didn't do anything today regards trading, was preoccupied for most of the day! Was going to have a look at the India v WI ODI but didn't get the chance, what a knock by Sehwag!! Phenomenal hitting.... Would of probably been a winner for me as I favoured India massively in this one.

Yesterdays Champions League bets/trades went OK with just one of the 3 matches I picked out being acceptable odds, I got on at 1.52 and got 2 early goals in the 2nd half. In the Benfica and R.Madrid games the first goal was scored before the odds moved to my entry point. Fortunately as Benfica only won 1-0 in the end.

The Man City Unders trade was a winner and unfortunately I didn't lay Man Utd but was still glad to see them beaten. They really don't look very good to me and they need to strengthen in the transfer market if they are to compete at Champions League level.

Looks to be a good card this weekend from Cheltenham so I will be definitely trading tomorrow to try and nick a few quid, if I add 10-15% I'll be very happy.

Champions League Wednesday

2011-12-07T18:44:00.001Z

Managed to put in a decent day trading the horses pre race today with no losing races although I didn't do the full cards and just cherry picked which races I got involved with, my internet connection has finally been sorted and have been upgraded to a faster line. I didn't see much difference in speed whilst trading but I think the API was maybe playing up a bit because I experienced a bit of freezing at times? I haven't heard anyone else complaining of this though and I will keep an eye on how it goes.

I have also decided that I will look at trading some Cricket also with minimum stakes as I learn as it is a sport I enjoy and feel there are profits to be had, I will update on any progress with that as and when.

Champions League

Yesterdays Champions League picks broke about even for me with 2 out of the 3 games finishing over 1.5, slightly surprised to see Porto draw 0-0..... The other games went well though with 5 goals in the Dortmund game and 2 goals in the Leverkusen.

Tonight I feel there will be goals in quite a few of the games but again there isn't much value to be had, Man Utd are too short for me to win in Basel even though I feel they will. The pressure is well and truly on and even though Man Utd have to win, Basel can keep it tight early and make it difficult for Man Utd. Having said that, if they concede early then it will be a comfortable night for the English outfit.

Man City are too short in my book to beat Bayern who gave them a lesson in European football in the reverse fixture, I know they have already qualified and that is significant but it would take a brave backer to be jumping in at 1.7 that's not to say they won't both win!! I just feel the odds don't accurately represent the chances of it happening.

Both the mentioned games I feel offer poor value pre K.O in the over goals markets and I feel a back of under 2.5 @ 2.24 in the Man City game with a view to trading out at around 15 mins might be the way to play it??

I am going to go for 2 games that I feel will offer some good value on the over 1.5 goals market after around 15 mins of goalless football and 1 that I feel offers pre K.O value but we can get a bigger price.

BENFICA V OTELUL - OVER 1.5 GOALS @ 1.20 pre K.O. I will be looking for 1.32
AJAX V R.MADRID - OVER 1.5 @ 1.27 pre K.O. I will be looking for 1.4
INTER V C.S.K.A - OVER 1.5 @ 1.43 pre K.O This I feel is already decent value but I feel we can get around 1.51 after around 7mins of goalless football, so will get in then.

So it should be a good night of football and will be interesting to see who finishes where in the groups, hopefully we could have some exciting looking knock-out fixtures when the draw is made?

Champions League

2011-12-06T19:24:00.004Z

Just want to start off by mentioning the fabulous Green All Over Blog written by Cassini, He has commented on the interview of infamous blogger John O Dwyer, written by Sultan from Centre Court Trading. I am sure you're all familiar with the situation/story so won't go into it but I did want to comment on the discussion regarding that he needs a £1000 bank to be profitable.

Of course this is nonsense in one respect and he is fundamentally wrong, however I kind of know what he's trying to say. Let's say you were profitable to the tune of his most successful period, I think it was around £27k he won throughout a period in 2010!! Now for whatever reason he doesn't have that anymore and I don't know if it was lost on Betfair or not?? But having been used to trading with such sums and making said figures, starting back out with say a £100 bank must be a head killer and genuinely to him it feels unworkable.

That isn't true of-course but I can seriously understand what he's trying to get across.... but as Cassini and others have commented, you get to £1000 the same way as you get to £10,000, that is good advice and John should really take it!! If he cannot get over the mental torment he is experiencing whilst playing with a small bank and feels he has to gamble to get it up to a playable level then he will go full circle again and lose the lot again. Having looked at his November P+L he surely is up to that magical £1k now?? So lookout for some big profits posted for December :-)

champions league

Tonight we see the final group games of the Champions League and still lots to play for and be sorted out for a lot of teams. I am really worried for Man City in tommorows crunch games to be honest.....If it isn't a big enough feat having to beat Bayern? they have to rely on results elsewhere and the way Villareal have played thus far, I wouldn't be too confident of them getting anything from Napoli!!

Tonight's fixtures look ok and I am going to be looking at goals in the Dortmund, Leverkusen and Porto games. I feel that's where there may be a spot of value to be had and will look to back all 3 games over 1.5 after about 15 mins of the game starting, providing it's still goalless of-course?

At the current pre off prices I see little value in any of those 3 games mentioned and will be wanting around 1.5 for the Dortmund and Porto games and 1.4 in the Leverkusen match!! Whether that will be after 15 mins I don't know? but at the current prices, they're pretty much priced correctly in my view.

Stay green

Well done Tiger

2011-12-05T16:44:00.001Z

Managed to secure a decent win on Tiger woods' win in the Chevron last night, It was great for trading with just 2 players in contention for most if not all of the last round, so what one did directly affected the other. To be honest I am a huge Tiger Woods fan and was always with him for most of the round so maybe not trading in the purest of the form but I did lay him when I felt he was too short but was always wary of being too red on him as he can do something special and the market just collapses. What a great putt on 17 though, sheer class and guts of a champion.

Managed to post profits in the football between Wolves and Sunderland. Backed over 1.5 just after HT and after the first goal let it go a bit and got the 2nd...wasn't too happy when the pen was missed however but Wolves scored with their very next attack so was all good.

Onto today and I have made a right mess trading the Cricket, I was keen to be with India and was trying to keep them onside for most of the run chase, they just kept losing wickets though and it was always goint to be a loser for me when they do that. I really think it was a relatively easy chase and they should be disappointed. I tried to get a reprieve by laying WI at 1.03 and the ballooned out to 1.73 after a few boundaries for India.... They needed 17 off I think 20 and was staying in because I feel they should of even got that. Unfortunately the very next ball...BANG all out and me left with a bruised ego and a disappointing loss. I really have to not be so greedy in these markets as I got a lot of trades right and then bang a wicket and your looking at a loss. Definitely money to be made at Cricket but maybe not for me?? Does it suit my trading style? I'm not sure, I can hold a position way too long and it really annoys me when I get back to square one after a couple of balls after building a decent position for an hour or so!!!

Lots to work on and much to improve on. I feel when I am trading sports that I may not be as knowledgeable on I am staking too big really, this is affecting my thoughts and I should be looking just to learn movements etc... BUT I AM GREEDY!! lol.

Hope your all winning lots, i'm sure you are!

Internet Woes

2011-12-03T17:12:00.000Z

No trading for the last 2 days on the horses as my internet connection has gone completely down?? I am supposed to be switched over to a new 20mb line in the next couple of weeks and was told that I would experience outages when this happened. Apparently this is not what is happening and they have found a fault on the line which is being "investigated".... pretty annoying to be honest but hopefully it will be sorted soon?

My football analysis appears to be going well with 6 games that qualified as those likely to have goals in, I managed to profit from them and found games with score lines of 4-2, 4-3, 5-1, 4-0, 3-0 and 2-1... obviously very happy with how today turned out and definitely an area that requires more analysis.

I'm trading off my mobile phones tethering abilities and to be fair it's pretty quick with refresh rates of around 150 on my trading software which is definitely acceptable. It does not suit my style of trading though and I do get frustrated when things don't happen as quick as you're used to, so it's just the slower moving markets for me until they sort it out.

I'm logging off for the day as my lovely fiancée is cooking me a meal so it's a night in relaxing and a few drinks. Hope you all had a good days trading.....

Part Time v Full Time??

2011-11-30T15:35:00.002Z

Just a quick post on part time trading as opposed to full time! So many people want to be full time traders and it is their dream!! I can fully understand this as it all sounds very good, just trading a few hours a day for an above average (in most cases) wage!!

I thought the same, unfortunately I dont at this moment in time have the correct personality to be full time. I can show a profit on the betting exchanges as i'm sure an awful lot of people can? But the problem comes when you have to produce these results for a living, it suddenly gets a good deal harder mainly because of your thoughts going into a trade or trading session. Subconsciously you are thinking I have to be perfect in the markets and can't make many mistakes as I have to earn each and every day!!! IMPOSSIBLE, you simply can't win every day and this affects you going forward, your plan becomes ragged and you start trading in a way that has never made you money in the past...so why now?? Because you are under pressure to make money.

Add that to the seclusion and lack of interaction, this is my biggest problem. I like being out and about some of the time, meeting people, banter with work mates etc.... social interaction is one of the biggest things you miss when you are trading full time and if you don't take the necessary steps to get out there and into the real world whether it be going out for meals, cinema, out with friends etc... then you can get dragged down by just being at your computer all day and repeating the process daily!! You eventually start to lack confidence when you do go out basically because your out of touch in the socialising department.

There is also the small matter of telling people what you do, most family won't understand and will think your dreaming let alone friends and acquaintances! When you are applying for some things like mortgages, car finance or whatever it will be very difficult even though may be doing well and have bank statements to prove it? They will view you as a bigger risk because the income is not guaranteed.... It's also not guaranteed because of Betfair, the new premium charge will have killed it for most big hitters I suspect? I would not put my money through a market and take all the risks for someone else to take 60%...Madness. even 20% is ridiculous but it just proves that they can do what they want and that is a dangerous worry if you have no fall back plans in place.

Now I'm not saying this is right for every full time trader as it clearly is not, what I am saying is that it's easy to get into this cycle and making money on Betfair is so much easier when you don't "have" to. For me I feel having at least a part time job as well as trading is a must as I simply don't have the character needed to do it full time and that's just a fact. It bores me and does get monotonous at times-just like a job! I dare say full time Cricket or Tennis traders will have more pleasure when trading as they have a genuine interest in the sport and they can enjoy the games also but pre race horse racing trading is pretty boring.

Also I would suggest you have some decent money behind you as-well... You need enough saved I feel to be able to pay your bills etc... for at least 3-6 months, leaving the pressure off a little when first going full time.

This isn't a post aimed at saying to people don't go full time because it can give you a great quality of life and I do know full time traders that do very well and they manage themselves impeccably as is their mindset and personality.. I just want to maybe provoke a bit of thought for some people that are maybe considering it and for them not to go into it lightly because it's not all about making big money every day. You have to put in as much work and probably more than you would have to do in a "normal" job.

Quiet Weekend

2011-11-27T22:30:00.000Z

Very quiet weekend for me, big night out last night so didn't do anything today as I always like to feel fresh when active in the markets.

The Stoke trade didn't go to plan but managed to get on the over 1.5 so that cancelled out that. I didn't think Blackburn played that badly but it's clear that they have serious problems defensively and they have conceded a silly amount of goals, they are in deep trouble.

Football hasn't gone badly for me and I am sure I have a profitable strategy to use on it, I am going to monitor to see if I would be better leaving them as bets as an awful lot of them seem to win but I will have a look and see how that progresses but i'm more comfortable greening up though.

The horse racing markets at this time of year can be unappealing and boring to trade as there is lots of small fields that lack quality. It's very difficult to get motivated to trade them and this is a game you need to be fresh and feeling good to be able to turn a profit, it's so easy to lose money and very difficult to make it which is why the best advice often given is try not to lose....I can't stress how important that is!

Hope you all had a great weekend trading

Weekend Trading

2011-11-26T11:12:00.000Z

The Champions League trades went very well with the Arsenal game being 0-0 at HT. I managed to lay off my liability at 1.65 and then greened up at HT for a decent profit. In the Chelsea game I backed over 1.5 after aroung 25 minutes and greened up after Drogba had scored early in the 2nd half.

Haven't done much in the way of horse trading this week and will probably be doing this afternoons cards as there's some good racing from both Newbury and Newcastle where we see 2010 Champion Hurdler Binocular, also the fantastic Big Bucks is in action at Newbury and is a very very short price so will obviously attract massive volumes on Betfair.

I'm not a fan of trading these very short prices as it all moves too slow and the fill rate isn't very quick, I rely on movement to make my money, Also I like to be turning over my stake very quickly when the movement isn't there which is just so hard to do when so much money is stacked either side on these shorties.

In todays early Premier League game, Stoke take on Blackburn in a game Blackburn will feel they can get something from, they have been slighlty unlucky this season and even though they have been shocking at times they can get something today. Stoke for me are too short and I will be laying them from the start hoping to get out if Blackburn score first. Over 1.5 if it gets to 1.7x will be my other trade depending on how quickly I can get that sort of price.

Not really sure about some of todays other games in the premier but may have a look in-play to see if any opportunities crop up?

Champions League

2011-11-23T18:05:00.001Z

Tonight sees some crucial games in the Champions League as we get to the nitty gritty of the group stages. I must say that having looked at most games they all look pretty tough to call with maybe the exception of Valencia who I think will beat Genk?

I'm going to trade the Arsenal game as I feel it could be a very tight first 20-25 mins, Dortmund are in fantastic form and coming off the back of a win against Bayern at the weekend will fancy getting something at Arsenal. I am backing under 2.5 goals from the start with a view to laying off around the 20 minute mark at 1.7ish!!

Arsenal's form has improved dramatically over the past few weeks, but their reliance on Robin Van Persie is a worry for me, he surely cannot keep single handedly winning games for Arsenal with very little input from his team mates and expect Dortmund to have him well marked tonight, leaving very few chances in the game and a solid looking unders trade.

In the other games I feel Barca are too short at Milan although I aren't a layer as Milan are no great shakes and it's a game Barca could easily win. Chelsea look overpriced travelling to Leverkusen but their form is a worry and they cannot be backed with any confidence, the trade in that one maybe over 1.5 goals if still goalless at 25 mins? I will keep an eye on that one in-play and see what sort of price I can get after that time, depending how the game is going of course.

TRADE OF THE DAY- Arsenal v B.Dortmund UNDER 2.5 @ 2.0.

Good luck with your trades tonight, Add me on Twitter @TradingBetfair and let me know who you're trading.

Thanks for reading

Back With A New Outlook

2011-11-23T02:19:00.000Z

Hello all!!

I'm back!! I have decided that the blog needs to take a different direction..... I will still be trading and writing about it. Just it's not going to be a £100 trading challenge as I have to trade with full stakes to make money and I really do not like the profit and loss posting idea of blogging. I feel it gives nothing to the reader and feels wrong somehow??

I didn't start blogging with the intention of posting up the p+l as it grows and turning it into a "look at me" "look how good I am" type of blog as it offers nothing back.

I will be posting up my thoughts behind trading, Betfair and all things life in general. I want it to be interesting and for people to enjoy reading it rather than just another how much I made today.

I took the blog down after I received a few comments and emails regarding this and although thinking about it the comments were right in some way, I felt it was a bit of an unnecessary attack as my intention was not to come across arrogant and big headed. So after much deliberation I am back without the p+l screenshots although I might in the future post screen shots if I feel they are necessary to the post?

Anyway, hopefully some of you may be pleased i'm back, I know I hardly have any readers so know-one will probably even notice? Trading has been going ok if a little slow as is the norm for this time of year, I have traded some cricket which I enjoy if I get the time and have been researching a few football strategies, I am hoping to put some trades on the blog also as a trial just t see how they go, early signs suggest they are profitable but that is only a smallish sample size at the moment.

Thanks for reading and hopefully you're all green!?

Forget About Winning

2011-10-28T22:56:00.005+01:00

I received a coment from Average Guy asking me to share a trading strategy I used in the past that I feel may no longer work in todays markets? I thought i'd do a post on why we can't copy a certain strategy or person as everyone deals with trades and risk differently, what suits one won't suit another and yet both can still be profitable traders long term on Betfair.

I won't reveal what my style or my methods are just yet as i'm not totally sure that they won't work? It's just the early signs suggest they will need tweaking.

This isn't being nasty or big headed etc... It's just I don't feel there is a strategy that you can give to someone else to use or implement that will work. Everyone is different and has different characteristics and risk thresholds!! So it's impossible to say there is an exact science, it really isn't like that.

For what it's worth, it's not rocket science how I trade or make money and it doesn't have to be, I am 99% certain that the majority of people who invest a bit of time and effort can trade the horses effectively, For example, you will trade and you have good winning races where everything just clicks and after that race you feel great!?

BUT THEN YOU LOSE ON THE NEXT GET PISSED OFF AND GO IN PLAY AND/START CHASING??

This is what I used to do and what every trader starting out will have done at some point?? But when you sit and think about it and how well you traded the winning races, it gives you the confidence and belief that you can do this.... You eventually start to limit your losses and not go in play, because of this little adjustment of limiting losses you find that your winning races are adding up nicely and are't been eatan into with a bad losing race, you start to show a consistent profit... It really isn't as hard as people like to make it out to be, keep it simple and you will succeed.

What i'm trying to say is, Everyone can make winning trades!! What sets the winners apart from the losers is how you manage and limit loss..... Instead of trying to win, try not to lose and you will be suprised that you will actually start to win without really trying that hard to do it!!

Looking Forward To November

2011-10-28T22:40:00.000+01:00

Just a quick note on the month of October, I haven't got anywhere near as much trading in as I would of liked since starting the blog, however this will be changing in November as I will have much more time available throughout the month. Yes it may not be the best time to be trading as we switch over to the jump season proper but I think there is enough money around with my limited sakes to make a few quid and any progress will be welcomed to be honest!!

I will be trading a full day tomorrow so hopefully i'll be updating tomorrow evening telling you all of a fabulous day?? (Glass half full thinking :-))

Plenty of good football on aswell but I will be concentrating on the racing as that is my priority over the next few months or so.

Hope you all have a good weekend and if you make a few quid? Even better.

Football keeps me ticking over

2011-10-26T02:11:00.002+01:00

Still not done anything on the horses, haven't had the chance although I expect this to change soon as will have a bit more time i the afternoons. Just been looking into a few ideas regarding football tradig and this is a sport I want to look at more in the future as there are matches going off all the time and it's a very flexiblesport to trade time wise.

Managed to make just over £11 with a couple of trades over the last few days, I know this is supposed to be a horse racing blog and it is although I am hoping to introduce football trading into my thoughts aswell. For now though I will try to keep it racing orientated as much as I can... I was just aware that I hadn't done much so far on that front and wanted to post something up.

I have been looking at a few horse racing markets however and I am a little worried as to how much spoof money is being banded around and some serious manipulation going on. Now when I traded the markets a few years back, there wasn't anything like as much going on as there is now and I am worried that I may not be able to profit as my style may be outdated in today's markets?? There is obviously someone controlling the horse racing markets and in quite a big way, maybe i'm being too dramatic but I honestly feel that it's going to take some learning as the signals that were previously there, count for very little in todays markets. I have an idea that Betfair are not all innocent in the current activity and it looks as though they are very much more involved in the pre race markets than they used to be??? Maybe i'm wrong?

would be interesting to hear what any other pre race traders feel about it.....

Nothing Doing (yawn)

2011-10-24T01:02:00.003+01:00

Apologies for lack of update, I bet some of the few readers I have think this is one of the most BORING blogs out there? I didn't think it would be any different given my lack of action in the markets so far!! Haven't done anything on the horses over the weekend as i've not had the chance to devote an afternoon to it and I really don't like doing it half heartedly as It's hard enough to make money without putting your full concentation into it.

Managed to watch Man Utd v City on MOTD2, WOW wouldn't of picked that scoreline??? Didn't really fancy UTD but still 6-1 was a shock although City thoroughly deserved it given the inept defending I witnessed by Man Utd.

Tomorrow I should be trading a full afternoon and hopefully as the week goes on I will be able to get more in and get the challenge going proper? But like i've said, there's no rush and I have no time targets etc...

Hope you all had a green weekend :-)

Early Finish

2011-10-21T18:59:00.000+01:00

Didn't get back until late afternoon so thought i'd have a crack at the 2 evening meetings, Don't usually like doing the Irish and with gaps between the races I felt myself getting bored and involved way too early in the market. I had made a trade at Newbury this afternoon but couldn't monitor it as I wasn't near my computer. Having identified a possible drifter I laid Mutasadder in the 2.20 Newbury at 4.3 and I greened up at 4.8 for around £2, I had made sure I changed the setting on my software to take sp at the off incase this wasn't matched but that was never going to happen as he went off 10.32 BSP!!!! if only I had been home... would of been a belter of a trade.

Onto tonight I got off to a good start with two good winners of around £2 but proceeded to lose £6 in the next, this was by laying a steamer on what I thought was a resistance point!??? Obviously not as it continued it's dwnward trend and I just did nothing until waking up andtaking an ugly loss, I couldn't get anything going in a few races after, so it's time to call it a night.

Looking forward to tomorrow asI should be trading in the afternoon, I usually enjoy saturdays and will be hoping to be adding 2% at least to the trading bank.

Australian Bomber!!!!

2011-10-21T06:00:00.000+01:00

Up early today so decided to have a look at trading the Aus markets for half an hour or so, it's something I did right at the start of my trading on Betfair but I tend not to bother with them nowadays unless it's a big meeting like the Melbourne cup etc....

Well thankfully I did as I made a massive £25.02 (relatively speaking of course) in just over half an hour and trading on 7 races with no losses. I find the Aus market pretty easy for very small stakes as you can get a couple of ticks here and there no problem due to the jumpy nature of the low liquidity markets. Saying that I got very lucky in the 2nd race as The newly christened (by me) Australian bomber was out in force, I was on the fav at around 1.98 for maybe £40-50 and then Booo, he takes everything to about 1.8!!! I managed to get a lay in straight away and up it went, the end result was a very welcome but lucky £13.54.

The other races were pretty straight forward and called most of them spot on and luckily the money backed me up and the move came. It's probably not something I am going to b doing often but I thought I have to be up and have an hour or so.

Might be tradig this afternoon as I'm hoping to be sorted out by around 2pm but I will have to see on that?? One thing I can guarantee though is I won't be making £25 if I do......

Right, got to get sorted out now and hopefully I will speak to you all soon, Have a winning day whatever you're doing :-)

False Start

2011-10-19T01:17:00.004+01:00

Well, what a pain. The challenge will have to be put back a few days!! Got up this morning to some news regarding work and unfortunately that has to take preference at the moment as there are a few issues that need my attention, I won't go into it on here but that means that my £100 challenge will have to be put back a few days, it's no real big deal in the grand scheme of things as patience is the key to this game and it's not a sprint!

I will still make some regular posts on maybe my set up, software etc... and might post a video up of some of my previous trading? Hopefully by this time next week I will have my first full day behind me and I can concentrate fully on turning a modest profit.

Just another brief mention of the comment I recieved after my first post and the link to an article Mind Games wrote over on his excellent blog. What a fabulously well written and relevant article this is and a must read for any trader old or new.

http://betfairtradingmindgames.blogspot.com/2009/06/part-2-of-ending-your-pre-race-trading.html

Stay lucky people

Loaded And Ready To Go

2011-10-18T01:33:00.001+01:00

Just a quick post to say i'm loaded with £100 for the challenge and am very much looking forward to it. Probably won't be breaking any records as Tuesdays can be poor but a good solid start will be perfect.

Thanks to all the bloggers that have exchangd links with me, appreciate that. Also a huge thanks to Mind Games for his excellent comment to my first post.

Thanks for reading, back tomorrow with an update.

Hello And Welcome

2011-10-17T02:09:00.001+01:00

Welcome to my new Betfair Trading challenge blog, I know I know "not another one of these" you're thinking, but I personally enjoy reading these types of blog and hopefully someone else will too??

The aim of the blog is to try and take a £100 starting bank and hopefully show what is possible from small beginnings on Betfair, Hopefully this will inspire other people into giving it a go and even though I may be odds on to fail? I'm going to try and have fun doing it.

There are some really great blogs out there and I know this one will not come anywhere close to them for the quality of content, but hopefully someone will get something from this and it will make it worthwhile.

I am going to be starting on tuesday 17th October on a seperate account loaded with just £100... I have had a discussion with a friend who is adamant that you need a balance in excess of £3-5000 to make a worthwhile profit on Betfair and this simply isn't true as you learn so much from your mistakes as an early trader with a small bank, so building it up gradually gives you the confidence and expeirience to make an astute profitable trader (that's my belief anyway :-))

My aim for the first month or two will be a daily growth of around 2%, Now I know that this is impossible to sustain with a bigger bank, I think it's more than manageble for my first 4-6 weeks?? This is not a target as I've been down that road before and it just adds pressure, sure I have an idea of what I want but I will not be forcing the issue and taking bad value risks if I don't hit the 2%.

I'll leave it there but would love to hear any ideas or advice any traders out there would might have for me in the quest for success?

Thanks all for reading