Friday, 28 October 2011

Forget About Winning

I received a coment from Average Guy asking me to share a trading strategy I used in the past that I feel may no longer work in todays markets? I thought i'd do a post on why we can't copy a certain strategy or person as everyone deals with trades and risk differently, what suits one won't suit another and yet both can still be profitable traders long term on Betfair.

I won't reveal what my style or my methods are just yet as i'm not totally sure that they won't work? It's just the early signs suggest they will need tweaking.

This isn't being nasty or big headed etc... It's just I don't feel there is a strategy that you can give to someone else to use or implement that will work. Everyone is different and has different characteristics and risk thresholds!! So it's impossible to say there is an exact science, it really isn't like that.

For what it's worth, it's not rocket science how I trade or make money and it doesn't have to be, I am 99% certain that the majority of people who invest a bit of time and effort can trade the horses effectively, For example, you will trade and you have good winning races where everything just clicks and after that race you feel great!?

BUT THEN YOU LOSE ON THE NEXT GET PISSED OFF AND GO IN PLAY AND/START CHASING??

This is what I used to do and what every trader starting out will have done at some point?? But when you sit and think about it and how well you traded the winning races, it gives you the confidence and belief that you can do this.... You eventually start to limit your losses and not go in play, because of this little adjustment of limiting losses you find that your winning races are adding up nicely and are't been eatan into with a bad losing race, you start to show a consistent profit... It really isn't as hard as people like to make it out to be, keep it simple and you will succeed.

What i'm trying to say is, Everyone can make winning trades!! What sets the winners apart from the losers is how you manage and limit loss..... Instead of trying to win, try not to lose and you will be suprised that you will actually start to win without really trying that hard to do it!!

Looking Forward To November

Just a quick note on the month of October, I haven't got anywhere near as much trading in as I would of liked since starting the blog, however this will be changing in November as I will have much more time available throughout the month. Yes it may not be the best time to be trading as we switch over to the jump season proper but I think there is enough money around with my limited sakes to make a few quid and any progress will be welcomed to be honest!!

I will be trading a full day tomorrow so hopefully i'll be updating tomorrow evening telling you all of a fabulous day?? (Glass half full thinking :-))

Plenty of good football on aswell but I will be concentrating on the racing as that is my priority over the next few months or so.

Hope you all have a good weekend and if you make a few quid? Even better.

Wednesday, 26 October 2011

Football keeps me ticking over


Still not done anything on the horses, haven't had the chance although I expect this to change soon as will have a bit more time i the afternoons. Just been looking into a few ideas regarding football tradig and this is a sport I want to look at more in the future as there are matches going off all the time and it's a very flexiblesport to trade time wise.

Managed to make just over £11 with a couple of trades over the last few days, I know this is supposed to be a horse racing blog and it is although I am hoping to introduce football trading into my thoughts aswell. For now though I will try to keep it racing orientated as much as I can... I was just aware that I hadn't done much so far on that front and wanted to post something up.

I have been looking at a few horse racing markets however and I am a little worried as to how much spoof money is being banded around and some serious manipulation going on. Now when I traded the markets a few years back, there wasn't anything like as much going on as there is now and I am worried that I may not be able to profit as my style may be outdated in today's markets?? There is obviously someone controlling the horse racing markets and in quite a big way, maybe i'm being too dramatic but I honestly feel that it's going to take some learning as the signals that were previously there, count for very little in todays markets. I have an idea that Betfair are not all innocent in the current activity and it looks as though they are very much more involved in the pre race markets than they used to be??? Maybe i'm wrong?

would be interesting to hear what any other pre race traders feel about it.....

Monday, 24 October 2011

Nothing Doing (yawn)


Apologies for lack of update, I bet some of the few readers I have think this is one of the most BORING blogs out there? I didn't think it would be any different given my lack of action in the markets so far!! Haven't done anything on the horses over the weekend as i've not had the chance to devote an afternoon to it and I really don't like doing it half heartedly as It's hard enough to make money without putting your full concentation into it.

Managed to watch Man Utd v City on MOTD2, WOW wouldn't of picked that scoreline??? Didn't really fancy UTD but still 6-1 was a shock although City thoroughly deserved it given the inept defending I witnessed by Man Utd.

Tomorrow I should be trading a full afternoon and hopefully as the week goes on I will be able to get more in and get the challenge going proper? But like i've said, there's no rush and I have no time targets etc...

Hope you all had a green weekend :-)

Friday, 21 October 2011

Early Finish



Didn't get back until late afternoon so thought i'd have a crack at the 2 evening meetings, Don't usually like doing the Irish and with gaps between the races I felt myself getting bored and involved way too early in the market. I had made a trade at Newbury this afternoon but couldn't monitor it as I wasn't near my computer. Having identified a possible drifter I laid Mutasadder in the 2.20 Newbury at 4.3 and I greened up at 4.8 for around £2, I had made sure I changed the setting on my software to take sp at the off incase this wasn't matched but that was never going to happen as he went off 10.32 BSP!!!! if only I had been home... would of been a belter of a trade.

Onto tonight I got off to a good start with two good winners of around £2 but proceeded to lose £6 in the next, this was by laying a steamer on what I thought was a resistance point!??? Obviously not as it continued it's dwnward trend and I just did nothing until waking up andtaking an ugly loss, I couldn't get anything going in a few races after, so it's time to call it a night.

Looking forward to tomorrow asI should be trading in the afternoon, I usually enjoy saturdays and will be hoping to be adding 2% at least to the trading bank.

Australian Bomber!!!!

Up early today so decided to have a look at trading the Aus markets for half an hour or so, it's something I did right at the start of my trading on Betfair but I tend not to bother with them nowadays unless it's a big meeting like the Melbourne cup etc....



Well thankfully I did as I made a massive £25.02 (relatively speaking of course) in just over half an hour and trading on 7 races with no losses. I find the Aus market pretty easy for very small stakes as you can get a couple of ticks here and there no problem due to the jumpy nature of the low liquidity markets. Saying that I got very lucky in the 2nd race as The newly christened (by me) Australian bomber was out in force, I was on the fav at around 1.98 for maybe £40-50 and then Booo, he takes everything to about 1.8!!! I managed to get a lay in straight away and up it went, the end result was a very welcome but lucky £13.54.





The other races were pretty straight forward and called most of them spot on and luckily the money backed me up and the move came. It's probably not something I am going to b doing often but I thought I have to be up and have an hour or so.

Might be tradig this afternoon as I'm hoping to be sorted out by around 2pm but I will have to see on that?? One thing I can guarantee though is I won't be making £25 if I do......

Right, got to get sorted out now and hopefully I will speak to you all soon, Have a winning day whatever you're doing :-)

Wednesday, 19 October 2011

False Start



Well, what a pain. The challenge will have to be put back a few days!! Got up this morning to some news regarding work and unfortunately that has to take preference at the moment as there are a few issues that need my attention, I won't go into it on here but that means that my £100 challenge will have to be put back a few days, it's no real big deal in the grand scheme of things as patience is the key to this game and it's not a sprint!

I will still make some regular posts on maybe my set up, software etc... and might post a video up of some of my previous trading? Hopefully by this time next week I will have my first full day behind me and I can concentrate fully on turning a modest profit.

Just another brief mention of the comment I recieved after my first post and the link to an article Mind Games wrote over on his excellent blog. What a fabulously well written and relevant article this is and a must read for any trader old or new.

http://betfairtradingmindgames.blogspot.com/2009/06/part-2-of-ending-your-pre-race-trading.html

Stay lucky people

Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Loaded And Ready To Go



Just a quick post to say i'm loaded with £100 for the challenge and am very much looking forward to it. Probably won't be breaking any records as Tuesdays can be poor but a good solid start will be perfect.

Thanks to all the bloggers that have exchangd links with me, appreciate that. Also a huge thanks to Mind Games for his excellent comment to my first post.

Thanks for reading, back tomorrow with an update.

Monday, 17 October 2011

Hello And Welcome

Welcome to my new Betfair Trading challenge blog, I know I know "not another one of these" you're thinking, but I personally enjoy reading these types of blog and hopefully someone else will too??

The aim of the blog is to try and take a £100 starting bank and hopefully show what is possible from small beginnings on Betfair, Hopefully this will inspire other people into giving it a go and even though I may be odds on to fail? I'm going to try and have fun doing it.

There are some really great blogs out there and I know this one will not come anywhere close to them for the quality of content, but hopefully someone will get something from this and it will make it worthwhile.

I am going to be starting on tuesday 17th October on a seperate account loaded with just £100... I have had a discussion with a friend who is adamant that you need a balance in excess of £3-5000 to make a worthwhile profit on Betfair and this simply isn't true as you learn so much from your mistakes as an early trader with a small bank, so building it up gradually gives you the confidence and expeirience to make an astute profitable trader (that's my belief anyway :-))

My aim for the first month or two will be a daily growth of around 2%, Now I know that this is impossible to sustain with a bigger bank, I think it's more than manageble for my first 4-6 weeks?? This is not a target as I've been down that road before and it just adds pressure, sure I have an idea of what I want but I will not be forcing the issue and taking bad value risks if  I don't hit the 2%.

I'll leave it there but would love to hear any ideas or advice any traders out there would might have for me in the quest for success?

Thanks all for reading